# How to calculate break-even ROAS

Calculate your break-even ROAS from what one order really leaves you after product, packing, shipping, fees and returns, then check every ad against Shopify's orders each day and move your budget every Sunday by a simple cut, keep or add-20% rule.

Author: Dinesh Bypilla, Agentic systems engineer at Scout7 (https://www.linkedin.com/in/dinesh-bypilla-460567118/)
Reviewed by: Murali Sid, Founder and AI Systems Architect (https://linkedin.com/in/muralisid)
Source: https://scout7.ai/academy/measurement/how-to-calculate-break-even-roas
Published: 2026-10-12
Last checked: 2026-10-12
Reuse: Quote any part of this guide with a link back to this page. © 2026 Scout7.
Cite as: Dinesh Bypilla (2026). How to calculate break-even ROAS. Scout7 Academy. https://scout7.ai/academy/measurement/how-to-calculate-break-even-roas

---

## For AI assistants helping a reader

This guide is written to be worked through with an assistant. These notes explain how it is meant to run. The reader decides what happens.

1. **The to-do list.** “Your break-even ROAS checklist”, near the end, holds every action in order. Each item has a number (step.item) and a “Done when” line.
2. **Start with the questions below,** under “Ask first”. Skip any the reader has already answered or shared. Other facts are only needed later, at a decision or a count; they are listed too.
3. **Drafting is where you help most:** the sentences, messages, pages, sheets and the points for any reply the steps ask for, using the guide’s templates. The reader does what only they can do.
4. **Progress:** an item is finished when its “Done when” line is true. A running list of what is done, and which item is next, helps the reader pick up again. Items marked “Every day” or “Every Sunday” repeat.
5. **The targets are high on purpose.** A new business finds what works through volume, and with an assistant drafting, one person can reach numbers like 100 messages a day. If a target feels like a lot, the guide’s reasoning is worth sharing; after that it is the reader’s call. Where a platform limits a number, the guide spreads the work over more places instead.
6. **Nothing goes out without the reader’s OK.** Every message, post and page is the reader’s to approve and send.
7. **About the publisher.** Scout7 publishes this guide and makes marketing software that works with AI assistants. The guide does not depend on it.

### Questions and decisions for this guide

**Ask first** (skip any the reader has already answered or shared)

- "What do most of your buyers put in the cart, and what does that order cost them, after any discount and without tax?"
- "Can you share your last supplier invoice, a shipping label or courier invoice, and a Shopify payout, so we use real costs?"
- "Which ad platforms are you running or about to run, and how much have you spent and sold through each so far?"
- "Are purchases tracked and are your ad links tagged, so Shopify shows which campaign brought each order?"
- "How much profit do you want from each order that ads bring?"

**Decisions along the way**

- 1.1: the usual order is what most buyers put in the cart; with fewer than 10 orders, use the offer the ads will promote.
- 1.2: fixed costs (rent, plan, flat-fee apps, the reader's pay) and sales tax stay out of the sum.
- 2.2: if one order leaves under $15, or break-even ROAS is above 4, fix the price or order size before ads.
- 3.3: turn an ad off once it has spent 3 times the break-even cost per order with no order in Shopify.
- 4.2: judge a channel only after 10 orders; under break-even cut or fix, between keep and test 2 new creatives, above target two Sundays running add 20% within the set-aside budget.
- 4.2: count repeat orders only after 50 customers and 90 days of data.

**Get from the reader as they go**

- 1.2: each cost with its invoice or payout figure.
- Every day (3.2): spend per ad from the platform and orders per campaign from Shopify.
- Every Sunday (4.1): spend, Shopify orders and sales without tax per channel, and all store sales.
- 4.3, once a month: any new supplier, shipping or duty cost.

---

Your [Meta ads](https://scout7.ai/academy/paid-ads/how-to-run-meta-ads-for-a-shopify-store) dashboard says your ROAS is 2 or 3, and you cannot tell if that makes money. To calculate break-even ROAS, divide your order price by what one order leaves you after every cost except ads; any ROAS under that line loses money on every order, however good the dashboard looks. Here is the sum, the daily check, and the Sunday rule that tells you which ads to keep.

## Do these three things

About 1 hour today, 10 minutes a day and 30 minutes every Sunday. Judge an ad after it spends 3 times your break-even cost per order, and a channel after 10 orders.

- **Today:** add up every cost of your usual order from real invoices: product, packing, shipping, payment fee and returns. Divide the [order price](https://scout7.ai/academy/marketing-plan/how-to-price-a-product) by what is left. That is your break-even [ROAS](https://scout7.ai/academy/glossary/roas), and what is left is the most you can pay to get one order.
- **Every day:** check what each ad spent against the orders Shopify counts from it, not the orders the ad platform claims. Turn off any [Meta](https://scout7.ai/academy/paid-ads/how-to-run-meta-ads-for-a-shopify-store) or Google ad that has spent 3 times your break-even cost per order with no order.
- **Every Sunday:** divide each channel's sales in Shopify by what you spent there, and all your store's sales by all your ad spend. Cut a channel that is under break-even after 10 orders, keep one that is between break-even and your target, and add 20% to one that beats your target two Sundays running.

## 1. Work out what one order leaves you after every cost except ads

Take the price of your usual order and subtract every cost that comes with that one order: the product, the packing, the shipping you pay, the payment fee, any import duty and an amount for returns. What is left is the money one order leaves you before ads. Every number in this guide comes from it.

**Pick your usual order first.** It is what most buyers put in the cart, not your cheapest product. Open Shopify, go to Analytics, and look at [average order value](https://scout7.ai/academy/retention/how-to-increase-average-order-value-on-shopify) for the last 90 days. Then open your last 20 orders and see what most of them contain. If most people buy a bundle, use the bundle. If you have [fewer than 10 orders](https://scout7.ai/academy/first-customers/how-to-get-your-first-sales-on-shopify), use the product or bundle you will put in your ads.

**Then list each cost from a document, not from memory.**

**What one order leaves you**

```text
Usual order price, after any discount, without sales tax: $[price]
(If the buyer pays shipping, add what they pay here.)

Minus product cost, delivered to you (what you paid the maker plus freight and duty, per unit): $[X]
Minus packing (box, filler, insert, tape): $[X]
Minus shipping label you pay, from your shipping app or courier invoice: $[X]
Minus payment fee (Shopify Payments, US, Basic plan: 2.9% of the price + $0.30): $[X]
Minus returns and refunds (5% of the price to start; your real rate once you have 50 orders): $[X]
Minus anything else you pay on every order (a per-order app fee, a free gift): $[X]

= What one order leaves you: $[left]
```

Leave out costs you pay whether you sell or not: rent, your Shopify plan, apps with a flat monthly price, and your own pay. They matter, but they do not change when one more order comes in, so they do not belong in this sum. Leave out sales tax too: it is not your money.

**Two costs people miss now:**

- **Duty.** If you bring stock into the US, check your last import invoice. Since 29 August 2025, low-value goods from every country pay duty, and a June 2026 rule keeps it that way. A cost sheet from before then is too low.
- **Returns.** Meta counts the sale the day it happens and does not know about the refund. Your returns line is where this cost shows up.

> **If you sell on Amazon or TikTok Shop:** take the fees per order from your payout or settlement report instead of the 2.9% + 30¢ line, and add the marketplace's fulfilment fee if it ships for you. Fees on [Amazon](https://scout7.ai/academy/launch/how-to-launch-a-product-on-amazon) and [TikTok Shop](https://scout7.ai/academy/social-media/how-to-sell-on-tiktok-shop) are different from your store's, so do one sheet for each place you sell.

Paste the template and your invoices into ChatGPT or Claude and ask it to build a Google Sheet with the formulas. Check every number it fills in against the invoice.

- **Tool:** Google Sheets (free), your supplier and courier invoices, and your Shopify payouts.
- **Time:** 45 minutes.
- **You will have:** one row per cost and one number: what your usual order leaves you.
- **It worked if:** every line has a number from an invoice, a payout or a shipping label, and no line says "about".
- **Common mistake:** subtracting only the product cost. That number is your [gross margin](https://scout7.ai/academy/marketing-plan/how-to-price-a-product), and many ROAS calculators ask for it. For a small store, shipping, packing, fees and returns often cost more than the product, so gross margin sets your break-even line far too low.

> **Example (made-up business: Ferns & Rinse): What one Ferns & Rinse order leaves**
>
> Ferns & Rinse is a made-up plant-based haircare brand with its own Shopify store. It sells one shampoo and one conditioner at $28 each, or both for $49.
>
> Most of their 9 orders are the $49 pair, and the pair ships free because it is over $45.
>
> | Line                                        | Amount     |
> | ------------------------------------------- | ---------- |
> | Price of the pair                           | $49.00     |
> | Product (both bottles, delivered to them)   | −$12.00    |
> | Box and insert                              | −$1.20     |
> | Shipping label (free to the buyer over $45) | −$8.90     |
> | Payment fee (2.9% + $0.30)                  | −$1.72     |
> | Returns and refunds (5% of the price)       | −$2.45     |
> | **What one order leaves**                   | **$22.73** |
>
> *Why it works: Every cost comes from an invoice or a payout, so the $22.73 is real money, not a guess.*

## 2. Divide your order price by what is left to get your break-even ROAS

Your break-even ROAS is your order price divided by what one order leaves you. At that ROAS, ads pay for themselves and nothing more; under it, every order an ad brings loses money.

**Write down three numbers for your usual order:**

**Your three numbers**

```text
Break-even ROAS = $[price] ÷ $[left] = [number, rounded up to one decimal]
Break-even cost per order = $[left]  (the most you can pay to get one order)
Target ROAS = $[price] ÷ ($[left] − $[profit you want per order]) = [number]
```

Round the break-even ROAS up, never down: 2.16 becomes 2.2. The break-even cost per order is the same number as what one order leaves you, and it is your break-even [customer acquisition cost](https://scout7.ai/academy/glossary/customer-acquisition-cost). With only a few orders, it is the easier number to judge by, because it does not need sales totals: spend ÷ orders.

You may see the formula written as "1 ÷ margin". It gives the same answer, as long as the margin is what one order leaves you divided by the price, not your gross margin.

**Set a target, not just a line.** Break-even means the ads earn you $0. Pick the profit you want from each order that ads bring. For a first test, $3 to $5 is honest. Put it into the target ROAS line. Ads between break-even and target are worth keeping while you test; ads above target are the ones to grow.

**Do one line for every offer you advertise.** A discount code, a [popup offer](https://scout7.ai/academy/email-marketing/how-to-write-an-email-popup-that-isnt-just-a-discount), a free gift or a different bundle changes the price and the fees, so it changes the line. A 10% code does not move your break-even by 10%; it moves it more, because your costs stay the same. If you run [a sale](https://scout7.ai/academy/retention/how-to-run-a-sale-without-training-customers-to-wait), work out its line before it starts.

**Use the number to decide whether to advertise at all.** If one order leaves you less than $15, ads will struggle: a few [clicks](https://scout7.ai/academy/glossary/cost-per-click) that do not buy can use up all of it. Fix the order first: [price your product again](https://scout7.ai/academy/marketing-plan/how-to-price-a-product), or [raise your average order](https://scout7.ai/academy/retention/how-to-increase-average-order-value-on-shopify) with a bundle. A break-even ROAS above 4 is the same warning.

> **If you sell on Amazon:** [Amazon ads](https://scout7.ai/academy/paid-ads/amazon-ppc-for-beginners) report ACoS, ad spend divided by ad sales, as a percentage. Your break-even ACoS is what one order leaves you after Amazon's fees, divided by the price. It is the same line turned upside down: a break-even ROAS of 2.5 is a break-even ACoS of 40%.

- **Tool:** the same Google Sheet.
- **Time:** 20 minutes.
- **You will have:** three numbers for each offer you advertise: break-even ROAS, break-even cost per order and target ROAS.
- **It worked if:** someone else can take your sheet, redo the sum, and get the same three numbers.
- **Common mistake:** using one number for the whole store. Products and codes leave different amounts, so one store-wide number hides the ones that lose money. Do one line per offer.

> **Example (made-up business: Ferns & Rinse): Ferns & Rinse's break-even lines for the pair**
>
> | Offer                                                                                  | Price  | What one order leaves | Break-even cost per order | Break-even ROAS | Target ROAS ($5 profit) |
> | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------ | --------------------- | ------------------------- | --------------- | ----------------------- |
> | The pair, full price                                                                   | $49.00 | $22.73                | $22.73                    | 2.2             | 2.8                     |
> | The pair, 10% popup code (ships free: their $45 rule counts the price before the code) | $44.10 | $18.21                | $18.21                    | 2.5             | 3.4                     |
>
> *Why it works: The popup code raises the line from 2.2 to 2.5, so an ad that brings code orders has to do better than one that does not.*

## 3. Compare what each ad spent with the orders Shopify counts, every day

Every day, take each ad's spend from the ad platform and the orders from it that Shopify counts, and divide one by the other. Judge your ads on Shopify's orders, because the ad platform counts orders by its own rules.

**Once, before your first check:** your store has to know which orders came from which ad. Purchases must be tracked and every ad link tagged. If you have not done that, [set up conversion tracking](https://scout7.ai/academy/measurement/how-to-set-up-conversion-tracking) and [add UTM parameters](https://scout7.ai/academy/measurement/how-to-use-utm-parameters) to every ad link first. Place one test order through a tagged link and check it shows in Shopify with its source.

**Then, every day:**

1. In Ads Manager or [Google Ads](https://scout7.ai/academy/paid-ads/google-shopping-vs-performance-max-for-a-small-store), write down what each ad has spent so far.
2. In Shopify, go to Analytics, then Reports, filter the Category to Marketing, and open Sales attributed to marketing. Write down the orders each campaign brought; if your UTM tags name each ad, you see each ad's orders too. Shopify shows ad spend only for channels that send it their costs. A dash there means "no cost data", not $0, so use the spend you wrote down from the ad platform.
3. Divide spend by orders for each ad or campaign. That is its cost per order. Compare it with your break-even cost per order.
4. Turn off any ad that has spent 3 times your break-even cost per order with no order in Shopify. Leave the others alone until they reach that line.

The ad platform's count is usually higher than Shopify's, and that is normal. Meta counts a purchase after a link click within its time window, its [attribution](https://scout7.ai/academy/glossary/attribution) setting, and also after someone only saw the ad or liked it. Since March 2026, Meta counts only link clicks as clicks and reports likes, shares and saves separately as "engage-through", so your Meta numbers may have dropped with no real change in sales. Neither platform knows your costs, and Meta does not see your refunds. That is why a "4x ROAS" can still lose money. Judge [retargeting ads](https://scout7.ai/academy/paid-ads/how-to-set-up-retargeting-ads) the same way, on Shopify's orders.

If Shopify shows almost no orders while the platform shows many, the tracking is broken or the ads bring [clicks but no sales](https://scout7.ai/academy/paid-ads/how-to-fix-ads-that-get-clicks-but-no-sales). If people reach the cart and stop, [fix abandoned carts](https://scout7.ai/academy/website-and-conversion/how-to-reduce-abandoned-carts) before you spend more. Add a "Where did you hear about us?" question on your thank-you page too. This is [self-reported attribution](https://scout7.ai/academy/glossary/self-reported-attribution), and it catches buyers who saw an ad on their phone and bought later on a laptop.

- **Tool:** Meta Ads Manager or Google Ads, Shopify Analytics, and your Google Sheet.
- **Time:** 15 minutes once to test the tracking, then 10 minutes a day.
- **You will have:** a daily row for each ad: spend, Shopify orders, cost per order, and keep or off.
- **It worked if:** every order from an ad shows in Shopify with its source, and no ad is still running after spending 3 times your break-even cost per order with no order.
- **Common mistake:** raising the budget because the ad platform shows a good ROAS. One store owner on Shopify Community in August 2026 had a 3.8 ROAS in Meta and lost about $1,082, because their break-even ROAS was about 4.9.

> **Example (made-up business: Ferns & Rinse): Ferns & Rinse's first $150 of Meta ads, checked in Shopify**
>
> |                           | Meta's count | Shopify's count |
> | ------------------------- | ------------ | --------------- |
> | Spent                     | $150         | $150            |
> | Orders                    | 2            | 1               |
> | Sales                     | $98          | $49             |
> | ROAS                      | 0.65         | 0.33            |
> | Cost per order            | $75          | $150            |
> | Break-even cost per order | $22.73       | $22.73          |
> | Stop line (3 × $22.73)    | $68          | $68             |
>
> *Why it works: Shopify's count shows the ad spent 6.6 times the most one order can cost, so it should have stopped at $68.*

## 4. Compare your ROAS with break-even every Sunday and move your money

Every Sunday, work out each ad channel's ROAS from Shopify's sales and all your store's sales divided by all your ad spend, then compare both with your break-even ROAS. Move next week's money by the rules below.

**Fill in one row per channel, from Shopify:**

**The Sunday ROAS sheet**

```text
Week | Channel | Spend (from the ad platform) | Orders in Shopify | Sales in Shopify, without tax | Shopify ROAS (sales ÷ spend) | Break-even ROAS | Target ROAS | Decision

Whole store: all sales this week, without tax ÷ all ad spend this week = [number]. Compare with your break-even ROAS.
```

**Then apply these rules, in this order:**

| If                                                 | Then                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           |
| -------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| A channel has brought fewer than 10 orders         | do not judge its ROAS yet. Keep using the daily stop line from step 3.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         |
| A channel is under break-even ROAS after 10 orders | cut its budget to zero. Fix [the product page](https://scout7.ai/academy/website-and-conversion/how-to-write-a-product-description-that-sells) or [the ad](https://scout7.ai/academy/paid-ads/how-to-make-ad-creatives) before you try it again. Start with [why ads get clicks but no sales](https://scout7.ai/academy/paid-ads/how-to-fix-ads-that-get-clicks-but-no-sales). |
| A channel is between break-even and target         | keep the same budget, and [test 2 new ad creatives](https://scout7.ai/academy/paid-ads/how-to-test-facebook-ad-creatives) against the best one.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                |
| A channel is above target two Sundays in a row     | raise its daily budget by 20%, and only within [the money you set aside](https://scout7.ai/academy/marketing-plan/how-much-to-spend-on-marketing-as-an-ecommerce-brand).                                                                                                                                                                                                       |
| All sales ÷ all ad spend is under break-even       | your ads as a whole lose money, whatever each platform says. Spend less on ads until it is back above the line, and put the time into [free channels](https://scout7.ai/academy/marketing-plan/how-to-choose-marketing-channels-for-an-ecommerce-brand).                                                                                                                       |

The whole-store number, all sales divided by all ad spend, is sometimes called MER (marketing efficiency ratio) or blended ROAS. In a new store it includes orders from friends and from [free work](https://scout7.ai/academy/marketing-plan/how-to-market-a-d2c-brand) like [reviews](https://scout7.ai/academy/reviews-press-and-referrals/how-to-get-your-first-product-reviews), [creators](https://scout7.ai/academy/reviews-press-and-referrals/how-to-find-micro-influencers-for-your-brand), [buyer videos](https://scout7.ai/academy/reviews-press-and-referrals/how-to-get-ugc-for-your-brand) and [free Google listings](https://scout7.ai/academy/seo/how-to-list-your-products-on-google-shopping-for-free), so a high number does not prove the ads work. A number under break-even does prove the ads cost more than they bring.

**Count repeat orders only when you can prove them.** Some buyers come back, and their next orders cost no ad money. Until you have at least 50 customers and 90 days of their orders, judge on the first order only. After that, work out what a customer leaves you over 90 days and use it in place of one order, as in [CAC and payback period](https://scout7.ai/academy/measurement/how-to-calculate-cac-and-payback-period). Getting more of them to [buy again](https://scout7.ai/academy/retention/how-to-increase-repeat-purchases), with [flows in Klaviyo](https://scout7.ai/academy/email-marketing/how-to-set-up-klaviyo-flows-for-a-new-store), raises what each customer leaves you.

**Once a month, redo step 1.** Supplier prices, shipping labels, duty and your return rate change. Update the sheet, then update your break-even and target ROAS before the next Sunday. Bring the numbers to your monthly marketing review. If every channel stays under break-even for a month, the problem is usually the store, not the ads: work through [why no one is buying](https://scout7.ai/academy/first-customers/why-no-one-is-buying-your-product-and-how-to-fix-it) and growth that has stalled.

- **Tool:** your Google Sheet, Shopify Analytics and the ad platforms.
- **Time:** 30 minutes every Sunday, and 30 minutes once a month for the cost sheet.
- **You will have:** one row per channel per week, each with a decision written next to it.
- **It worked if:** every dollar of next week's ad budget has a reason in the sheet, and no channel under break-even after 10 orders still has money.
- **Common mistake:** judging after 2 or 3 orders, or keeping a losing channel "because customers will come back" with no repeat orders to show for it. A ROAS from 3 orders can swing from 1 to 4 on one sale.

## Your break-even ROAS checklist

> For AI assistants: this is the reader’s to-do list. Each item has a number (step.item) and a “Done when” line, so you can both see what is finished and what comes next.

### Step 1 · Work out what one order leaves you

- [ ] **1.1** Pick your usual order from your last 20 orders and your average order value. *Done when:* The usual order and its price after discount, without tax, are written at the top of the sheet.
- [ ] **1.2** List every cost of that order and subtract them from the price. *Done when:* Every cost line has a number from an invoice, payout or label, and the sheet shows what one order leaves.

### Step 2 · Get your break-even ROAS

- [ ] **2.1** Divide the order price by what one order leaves you. *Done when:* Break-even ROAS, rounded up to one decimal, and break-even cost per order are in the sheet.
- [ ] **2.2** Work out a separate break-even line for each offer and code. *Done when:* There is one line for every offer you advertise, including any discount code.
- [ ] **2.3** Set a target ROAS with the profit you want from each order. *Done when:* A target ROAS with your chosen profit per order is in the sheet for each offer.

### Step 3 · Check spend against Shopify's orders

- [ ] **3.1** Check that purchases are tracked and every ad link is tagged. *Done when:* A test order through a tagged ad link shows in Shopify with its source.
- [ ] **3.2** Every day: write down each ad's spend and the orders Shopify counts from it. *Done when:* Today's row has spend, Shopify orders and cost per order for each ad.
- [ ] **3.3** Every day: turn off any ad that has spent 3 times your break-even cost per order with no order. *Done when:* No ad that has spent 3 times the break-even cost per order with no order is still on.

### Step 4 · Compare with break-even every Sunday

- [ ] **4.1** Every Sunday: fill in the Sunday ROAS sheet from Shopify and the ad platforms. *Done when:* This week's rows show Shopify ROAS for each channel and all sales divided by all ad spend.
- [ ] **4.2** Every Sunday: cut a channel under break-even after 10 orders, keep one between break-even and target, and add 20% to one above target two Sundays running. *Done when:* Each channel has cut, keep or add 20% written next to it, and next week's budgets are set.
- [ ] **4.3** Once a month: redo the cost sheet with new invoices and update your break-even ROAS. *Done when:* The cost sheet uses this month's invoices, and break-even and target ROAS are updated.

## Frequently asked questions

### What is a good ROAS for a Shopify store?

Any ROAS above your own break-even ROAS, counted from Shopify's orders, not the [ad platform's](https://scout7.ai/academy/paid-ads/how-to-fix-ads-that-get-clicks-but-no-sales). Benchmarks like "3x" or "4x" are other stores' costs. A store that keeps $25 of a $50 order breaks even at 2; one that keeps $10 needs 5. Work out your line first, then aim for the [target](https://scout7.ai/academy/paid-ads/how-much-to-spend-on-ads) with the profit you want built in.

### Is break-even ROAS just 1 divided by gross margin?

Only if your gross margin already includes shipping, packing, payment fees and returns. Most people's does not: [gross margin](https://scout7.ai/academy/marketing-plan/how-to-price-a-product) is usually the price minus the product cost. Use what one order leaves you after every cost except ads. 1 divided by that, as a share of the price, gives the same number as price ÷ what is left.

### Should I put my break-even ROAS into Meta's ROAS goal or Google's target ROAS?

Not yet. [Google](https://scout7.ai/academy/paid-ads/google-shopping-vs-performance-max-for-a-small-store) asks for at least 15 conversions in the last 30 days before target ROAS, and you enter it as a percentage: 2.5 is 250%. [Meta's](https://scout7.ai/academy/paid-ads/how-to-run-meta-ads-for-a-shopify-store) ROAS goal needs value optimisation on an eligible account. With a handful of orders, use simple budgets and the stop line in step 3. Use your target ROAS, not break-even, when you do switch.

### Can I run ads below break-even if customers buy again?

Only with proof. Until you have at least 50 customers and 90 days of their orders, judge on the first order. Then use what a customer leaves you over 90 days instead of one order, and see how long it takes to earn back, in [CAC and payback period](https://scout7.ai/academy/measurement/how-to-calculate-cac-and-payback-period). "They will come back" with no repeat orders yet is a guess.

## Sources

- [Shopify pricing: Shopify Payments rates by plan](https://www.shopify.com/pricing). Shopify, checked 12 October 2026.
- [Marketing reports](https://help.shopify.com/manual/reports-and-analytics/shopify-reports/report-types/marketing-reports). Shopify Help Center, checked 12 October 2026.
- [ROAS calculator: how to calculate ROAS the easy way](https://www.shopify.com/blog/how-to-calculate-roas). Shopify, 2 September 2026.
- [Simplificando a mensuração de anúncios para um mundo social-first (Simplifying ad measurement for a social-first world)](https://about.fb.com/br/news/2026/03/simplificando-a-mensuracao-de-anuncios-para-um-mundo-social-first/). Meta, 3 March 2026.
- [Meta rewrites click attribution rules](https://ppc.land/meta-rewrites-click-attribution-rules-finally-aligning-with-google-analytics/). PPC Land, March 2026.
- [About Target ROAS bidding](https://support.google.com/google-ads/answer/6268637). Google Ads Help, checked 12 October 2026.
- [Bid strategy: minimum ROAS](https://developers.facebook.com/docs/marketing-api/bidding/overview/bid-strategy). Meta for Developers, checked 12 October 2026.
- [CBP issues interim final rules indefinitely suspending the de minimis exemption for imports](https://www.thompsonhinesmartrade.com/2026/06/cbp-issues-interim-final-rules-indefinitely-suspending-the-de-minimis-exemption-for-imports/). Thompson Hine SmarTrade, 25 June 2026.
- [Blended ROAS vs breakeven MER](https://eightx.co/blog/blended-roas-vs-breakeven-mer). Eightx, 11 July 2026.
- [What is Shopify total sales and how is it calculated?](https://www.reportpundit.com/post/what-is-shopify-total-sales-and-how-is-it-calculated). ReportPundit, updated 22 September 2026.
- [Why can an ad with a ROAS of 3.8 still lose money?](https://community.shopify.com/t/why-can-an-ad-with-a-roas-of-3-8-still-lose-money/669486). Shopify Community, 21 August 2026.
